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⚠ EVENT DAY — REDUCE SIZECPI prints at 8:30 AM ET. Do not bias aggressively before the number. Size down, wait for displacement, then trade the reaction.
BIAS
CONFLUENCE
SNAPSHOT
ES
CAUTIOUS BULLISHMEDIUM CONV

ES printed a new ATH attempt Thursday before Friday's -0.27% retreat. Overnight gap Sunday is negligible (+7pts vs Friday settle). Price is trading above pdVWAP and above the prior week's upper balance range. Bias is cautiously bullish with cap on conviction due to CPI at 8:30.

RESISTANCE
7,826–7,835
7,800–7,810
SUPPORT
7,785–7,790
7,760–7,765
HTF DRAW Daily draw is toward the prior week's BSL cluster above 7,826 — Thursday's HOD zone. HTF structure remains bullish (3 consecutive weekly gains).
DISCOUNTpdVWAP ABOVEFVG 7,770–7,785
CONFIRM IF
Price holds above 7,790 post-CPI and reclaims 7,800 with a bullish MSS on the 5M chart.
INVALIDATION
Clean break and close below 7,760 on the 15M — bias flips bearish targeting 7,720 FVG.
NQ
CAUTIOUS BULLISHMEDIUM CONV

NQ broke above 30,000 last week and tagged a new cycle high near 30,975 before Friday's giveback. Overnight price is near 30,230, holding above the pivotal 30,000 structural level. NQ is in positive GEX territory — dealer hedging flows dampen downside. Bias filtered cautious due to CPI and elevated 10Y yields.

RESISTANCE
30,300 (call wall)
30,450–30,500
SUPPORT
30,000 (put wall)
29,878 (prior OB)
HTF DRAW Primary ICT draw is BSL above Thursday's HOD near 30,450–30,500 and ultimately the 52-week high cluster near 30,975.
DISCOUNTpdVWAP BELOWOB 29,878–29,950
CONFIRM IF
Post-CPI price reclaims 30,300 and holds above pdVWAP with a bullish displacement candle on 5M.
INVALIDATION
Break below 30,000 put wall on high volume — bias flips bearish, target 29,811 gamma flip.
NQ VS ES RELATIVE STRENGTH
NQ and ES are broadly aligned bullish. NQ is not lagging ES — Friday showed NQ -0.16% vs ES -0.27%, suggesting no downgrade required on longs. NQ leading slightly = risk-on confirmation.
MACRO RISK
CPI at 8:30 AM ET is the dominant risk. Do not initiate positions before the print. Wait for the initial 5-minute candle to close post-release before committing to direction. This is an EVENT DAY — reduce size by 50%.
VIX READ
VIX at 14.25 — well below 20. Positive gamma regime. Dealer hedging flows dampen downside moves and support mean-reversion behavior. Low VIX = trending day possible if CPI is clean.
LONDON HANDOFF
DAX expanded higher in the European session, providing a constructive handoff. London closed near session highs, leaving no major FVG to fill on the open. Gap-fill risk is low.
NQ SNAPSHOT
PRICE30,230
GAP+42pts / +0.14%
O/N RANGE30,140–30,320
pdVWAP30,185
INVENTORYNEUTRAL
ES SNAPSHOT
PRICE7,812
GAP+7pts / +0.09%
O/N RANGE7,796–7,824
pdVWAP7,798
INVENTORYLONG-LEANING
MACRO SNAPSHOT
VIX14.25
10Y YIELD4.69%
DXY99.6
DAX+0.4% ↑
Trade Ideas · Trader Plan
NQLONG
SETUP QUALITYB
B-grade — bullish confluence present but CPI at 8:30 caps conviction. Wait for post-data confirmation before entering.
ENTRY TRIGGER
After CPI print, wait for price to sweep PDL or Asia low, form a bullish MSS on the 5M chart, then enter on the first FVG fill above the MSS candle. Do not enter before 8:30 AM ET.
ENTRY ZONE
7,780–7,800
STOP LOSS
7,748 — below 4H OB
TARGET 1
7,826 — prior week BSL
TARGET 2
7,840–7,850 — HTF extension
RISK : REWARD
1 : 2.3
KILL ZONE WINDOW
8:35–9:30 AM ET
NOTES
CPI is the dominant variable today. A hot print likely invalidates the long setup entirely — wait for price reaction and MSS before committing. Size down 50% given event risk.
ESLONG
SETUP QUALITYB
B-grade — ES lagging NQ slightly, reducing conviction. Valid setup if NQ confirms first.
ENTRY TRIGGER
Wait for NQ to confirm bullish MSS first. Then enter ES on a 5M OB tap in the 7,785–7,800 zone with a closing candle above 7,800 as confirmation.
ENTRY ZONE
7,785–7,800
STOP LOSS
7,760 — below FVG
TARGET 1
7,826 — weekly BSL
TARGET 2
7,840 — HTF draw
RISK : REWARD
1 : 1.8
KILL ZONE WINDOW
8:35–9:15 AM ET
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